A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards are drawn and are found to be both diamonds. Find the probability of the lost card being a diamond.
Let E1 and E2 be the respective events of choosing a diamond card and a card which is not diamond.
Let A denote the lost card.
Out of 52 cards, 13 cards are diamond and 39 cards are not diamond.
$\therefore P\left(E_{1}\right)=\frac{13}{52}=\frac{1}{4}$
$\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_{2}\right)=\frac{39}{52}=\frac{3}{4}$
When one diamond card is lost, there are 12 diamond cards out of 51 cards.
Two cards can be drawn out of 12 diamond cards in ${ }^{12} \mathrm{C}_{2}$ ways.
Similarly, 2 diamond cards can be drawn out of 51 cards in ${ }^{51} \mathrm{C}_{2}$ ways. The probability of getting two cards, when one diamond card is lost, is given by $\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} \mid \mathrm{E}_{1}\right)$.
$\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} \mid \mathrm{E}_{1}\right)=\frac{{ }^{12} C_{2}}{{ }^{51} C_{2}}=\frac{12 !}{2 ! \times 10 !} \times \frac{21 \times 49 !}{51 !}=\frac{11 \times 12}{50 \times 51}=\frac{22}{425}$
When the lost card is not a diamond, there are 13 diamond cards out of 51 cards.
Two cards can be drawn out of 13 diamond cards in ${ }^{13} \mathrm{C}_{2}$ ways whereas 2 cards can be drawn out of 51 cards in ${ }^{51} \mathrm{C}_{2}$ ways.
The probability of getting two cards, when one card is lost which is not diamond, is given by $P\left(A \mid E_{2}\right)$.
$\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} \mid \mathrm{E}_{2}\right)=\frac{{ }^{13} C_{2}}{{ }^{51} C_{2}}=\frac{13 !}{2 ! \times 11 !} \times \frac{2 ! \times 49 !}{51 !}=\frac{12 \times 13}{50 \times 51}=\frac{26}{425}$
The probability that the lost card is diamond is given by $P\left(E_{1} \mid A\right)$.
By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain
$P\left(E_{1} \mid A\right)=\frac{P\left(E_{1}\right) \cdot P\left(A \mid E_{1}\right)}{P\left(E_{1}\right) \cdot P\left(A \mid E_{1}\right)+P\left(E_{2}\right) \cdot P\left(A \mid E_{2}\right)}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{22}{425}}{\frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{22}{425}+\frac{3}{4} \cdot \frac{26}{425}}$
$=\frac{\frac{1}{425}\left(\frac{22}{4}\right)}{\frac{1}{425}\left(\frac{22}{4}+\frac{26 \times 3}{4}\right)}$
$=\frac{11}{2}$
$=\frac{11}{50}$
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- JEE Main
- Exam Pattern
- Previous Year Papers
- PYQ Chapterwise
- Physics
- Kinematics 1D
- Kinemetics 2D
- Friction
- Work, Power, Energy
- Centre of Mass and Collision
- Rotational Dynamics
- Gravitation
- Calorimetry
- Elasticity
- Thermal Expansion
- Heat Transfer
- Kinetic Theory of Gases
- Thermodynamics
- Simple Harmonic Motion
- Wave on String
- Sound waves
- Fluid Mechanics
- Electrostatics
- Current Electricity
- Capacitor
- Magnetism and Matter
- Electromagnetic Induction
- Atomic Structure
- Dual Nature of Matter
- Nuclear Physics
- Radioactivity
- Semiconductors
- Communication System
- Error in Measurement & instruments
- Alternating Current
- Electromagnetic Waves
- Wave Optics
- X-Rays
- All Subjects
- Physics
- Motion in a Plane
- Law of Motion
- Work, Energy and Power
- Systems of Particles and Rotational Motion
- Gravitation
- Mechanical Properties of Solids
- Mechanical Properties of Fluids
- Thermal Properties of matter
- Thermodynamics
- Kinetic Theory
- Oscillations
- Waves
- Electric Charge and Fields
- Electrostatic Potential and Capacitance
- Current Electricity
- Thermoelectric Effects of Electric Current
- Heating Effects of Electric Current
- Moving Charges and Magnetism
- Magnetism and Matter
- Electromagnetic Induction
- Alternating Current
- Electromagnetic Wave
- Ray Optics and Optical Instruments
- Wave Optics
- Dual Nature of Radiation and Matter
- Atoms
- Nuclei
- Semiconductor Electronics: Materials, Devices and Simple Circuits.
- Chemical Effects of Electric Current,